by El Zorro Viejo (aka; Jim)

The hype mongers who pass for news/weather reporters these days had a grand time last week playing up Hurricane Rita. On the one hand, it is responsible to give people accurate, real time information about the strength and course of such storms. If you are anywhere in the 50% or higher track probability cone, you need this information to prepare for your response. On the other hand, these people tend to concentrate upon the worst case scenarios to the exclusion of the lesser shades of calamity. Therefore, when we have a Rita which begins with the potential to do a great deal of damage, but ends up being more of the "run-of-the-mill" variety of hurricane, all that hype tends to work as negative reinforcement for the next time.

I am thrilled that Rita did such comparatively little damage to our energy infrastructure and that there was, again comparatively, so little loss of life associated with this storm. However, just the fact that we have had two potentially huge storms in such a short time should start ringing our alarm bells. One thing we have to understand is that hurricanes and typhoons (ie. hurricanes in the Pacific Ocean) make up one of the Earth's primary ambient energy redistribution mechanisms. Whether the conservatives want to talk about Global Warming or not, the fact of the matter is that the sea water temperatures in the tropics have been climbing in recent years. Whether this is due to Global Warming caused by the burning of fossil and other carbon-based fuels by humans (as I am firmly convinced by the evidence available to us that it is), or whether it is simply some natural rhythm in the Solar-Earth energy matrix, we must recognize that as long as the oceans are heating up, we will have more and stronger storms coming out of the tropics. These storms are essentially heat pumps which move energy from the tropics to the cooler latitudes. As long as the Earth has more energy (which we call "heat") to move, it will generate storms to do the moving.

So, now we are faced with the problem of what to do about this. The best answer is to require any new construction, or any reconstruction of storm damaged/destroyed structures, has to be designed and built to withstand the wind and flooding associated with Category 5 storms. This means that the oil rigs out in the Gulf of Mexico will need to be built to withstand the winds and seas associated with major storms. This will mean that the communities along the coastlines will have to set their building codes to deal with their particular circumstances. Places where flooding is likely to accompany the winds of a storm will have to rebuild accordingly. This will be expensive, but, if we only require new construction or renovation/replacement construction to meet these codes, our economy could absorb the cost. Maybe.

See, here is the rub. If our economy was strong, if all levels of Government were running in the black--which might mean that some funds were tucked away in case of emergency, then I would not be all that concerned. However, these two most recent storms are showing us a couple of true weaknesses in our economic fabric. First, because both storms dealt blows to the oil industry production rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, the cost of fossil fuels is going up in this country. Regular gasoline could be at $4.00 a gallon and the retail prices of heating fuels (oil and natural gas) are expected to double or triple over next winter. This means that the cost of filling the tank of the family SUV could hit $80-$100. Heating the family manse could quadruple this winter. And those are the direct costs. Electricity produced from oil or natural gas fired plants will increase in price. Transportation costs getting goods to the retail markets will increase. The cost of manufacturing those products will increase. The costs of foods will increase as the energy/fertilizer/chemical costs associated with food production increase.

All these cost increases are going to impact consumers--that means all of us. As energy absorbs a larger slice of each our fiscal pies, we are going to have proportionally less discretionary funds to buy nonessential stuff. When consumer spending goes down, manufacturers and all the businesses which depend upon those manufacturers will begin cutting back. Cutting back: that's an euphemism for work force layoffs, and those will further impact an already weak retail economy.

Add to this scenario the very weak state of the Federal Treasury, and the seeds for a very strong recession or even a full-blown depression have been sown. Remember that if the private economy slips, tax receipts will also slip. Thus, budgets that depend upon a healthy economy become moot. And the national debt soars to scary new heights. The hurricanes are responsible for the crisises in fossil fuel prices, but they are not responsible for the sad shape of the federal treasury. Nor are they responsible for the abysmal shape of the Government when it comes to doing one of its major jobs: promoting the public welfare. This president and his political allies have to bear the responsibility for gutting the effectiveness of our government. This president has to assume the yoke of responsibility when it comes to the redistribution of our national wealth from the hands of many into the hands of a few. Finally, the president has to bear responsibility for the war in Iraq which has cost this country hundreds of billions of dollars and which has been spectacularly unsuccessful in its stated intent of making the US less vulnerable to attacks by terrorists.

Although any one, or even any two, of these situations could be born by our country, the confluence of all at once could very well swamp our economy's ability to rebound. It is very possible that George Bush could end up with Herbert Hoover as the two modern presidents who presided over the start of "great" economic depressions. It is time that we recognize that the only hope we have of ameliorating the damage done to this country by George Bush is to return the Democrats to power in the Legislative branch. With a Senate and House to restrain Bush from giving away more of our nation's wealth to the already wealthy, and to insure that the government is both structured and funded to provide that which it should be providing--support and services for its citizens--perhaps we will be able to dodge these bullets long enough to build up our strength to a point where we can absorb all without fatal consequences.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License. ©El Zorro Viejo 2002-2005